Bilateral trade: No direct impact of Russia-Ukraine crisis on India

TIL Desk/Business/New Delhi/ There is no direct impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on India in terms of bilateral trade but a surge in oil prices poses considerable risk to the economy, an analyst report said on Friday. International oil prices which have surged past $100 per barrel “pose risks to external stability and currency movement,” a Bank of Baroda Economics Research report said.

Russia has launched military operations against Ukraine, stoking fears of significant disruption in the region, including loss of life. The West is ramping up financial sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine. The economic impact on the rest of the world is likely to come from higher commodity prices, boosting inflation but hurting growth – stagflation-lite.

“But if hostilities and tensions escalate to the point where Russia is excluded from the Western payments and fast-messaging systems, as was Iran, a severe stagflation shock could result from an interruption of energy supplies,” Invesco said in a report.