TIL Desk/Business/Mumbai/ Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said that there have been “animated discussions” on the precision of statistical methods in recent times. “The doctrine – even tradition – of statistical significance in scientific research has come under some cloud for its veracity and the journal American Statistician published a special edition on this issue earlier this year.
Critics allege that these tests are susceptible to manipulation in order to make desired results significant, and undesired results non-significant,” Das said at the Statistics Day Conference here. In a recent paper which came under heavy criticism from the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian had used 17 high-frequency indicators that correlate with the GDP to suggest that India significantly over-estimated its GDP figures from 2011-12 onwards.
Das on another occasion said that some important results may be discarded at the conception level itself just because they are highly unlikely. “Similarly, an opportunity to ”cherry-pick” variables is available. In other words, correlations can be conveniently extended to establish spurious causality,” Das said.
