Fitch expects RBI to raise interest rates to 5.9 pc by December-end

TIL Desk/Business/New Delhi/ Fitch Ratings on Tuesday said the Reserve Bank is likely to raise interest rates further to 5.9 per cent by December 2022, on deteriorating inflation outlook. In its update to Global Economic Outlook, Fitch said India’s economy faces a worsening external environment, elevated commodity prices, and tighter global monetary policy.

“Given the deteriorating outlook for inflation, we now expect the RBI to lift rates further to 5.9 per cent by December 2022 and to 6.15 per cent by the end of 2023 (vs. previous forecast of 5 per cent) and to be unchanged in 2024,” Fitch said.

Last month in an unscheduled policy announcement, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised rates by 40 basis points to 4.4 per cent, and subsequently to 4.9 per cent last week. The RBI has forecast inflation to be 6.7 per cent by the end of current fiscal. The retail inflation for May came in at 7.04 per cent.

“Inflation has risen to an eight-year high and broadens across more CPI categories, posing a severe challenge to consumers. In the past three months, food inflation has increased by an average of 7.3 per cent year-on-year, while healthcare bills are rising at a similar pace,” Fitch said.